Brought to you by Senior Research Analyst Wayne Shum
State of the nation: an overview of the New Zealand property market for the three months ending June 2025
The New Zealand housing market remained largely flat through the first half of 2025. The national Valocity Value Index dipped by $4,000 since March and $8,500 since the beginning of the year, reflecting a 0.16% decline.
Figure 1: Valocity Value – New Zealand
While recent mortgage rate cuts have driven a 22% increase in mortgage registrations in the past quarter, they have not translated into price gains amid ongoing economic headwinds.
The long-delayed Auckland Council Revaluation was released in June 2025, based on values as of 1st May 2024. These figures are now over a year out of date and were prepared to allocate rates, not as a guide for current market transactions. Buyers and sellers are advised to rely on more current market data.
The unemployment rate remained at 5.1% for the quarter ended March 2025, despite forecasts of the measure to increase. The Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.8% in the three months ended May but was down by 1.1% year-on-year. Other economic indicators point to a slow market recovery.
Annualised net migration reached a new post-COVID low of 26,400, resulting in reduced demand for rentals and purchases. The departure of New Zealanders remained high. Redundancies and closures continued to feature in the news, further dampening confidence.
The RBNZ had cut the Official Cash Rate by 0.25% to 3.25% in May as widely expected; however, the quantum of the mortgage rate drop was smaller. The path to further cuts is less certain, as global conflicts and trade wars may lead to a rise in import prices, thereby potentially triggering the return of inflation.
Figure 2: Valocity Value Index and One-Year Fixed Rate
11 of the 16 regions, including Auckland, Wellington, and the Bay of Plenty, saw minor value declines in the past quarter, up from five for the three months ended May. However, it is worth noting that the changes to values were minor in most regions.
Over the past three months, the number of mortgage registrations resulting from purchases increased by 22%, reflecting the impact of lower borrowing rates that have enticed some buyers, but have failed to lift sale prices.
At the midpoint of 2025, the Valocity Value Index had edged down by 0.16%, or $8,500, from the start of the year, reflecting minimal movement in a sluggish market.
Figure 3: Valocity Value Movement – Year on Year Comparison
The national median sales price had declined from the highs of 2021 and has hovered near $800,000 since mid-2022 and is unlikely to see a recovery until the inventory is absorbed.
Figure 4: Median Sales Price (Settled Sales Only)
Net migration for the year ended April 2025 has fallen to 21,300, the lowest in two years, dampening rental and purchasing demand. Whilst immigration was at a similar level to the late 2010s, the outflow was near a record high at 123,700 over the 12 months.
Figure 5: Annualised Net migration (Statistics NZ)
Net migration for the year ended April 2025 has fallen to 21,300, the lowest in two years, dampening rental and purchasing demand. Whilst immigration was at a similar level to the late 2010s, the outflow was near a record high at 123,700 over the 12 months.
Construction
Building consent volumes have continued to decline, but the pace has slowed. In the 12 months to April 2025, 33,554 new homes were consented, with standalone homes increasing by 2.4% and multi-unit homes decreasing by 14%.
Figure 6: Composition of New Homes Consented – Annualised (Statistics NZ)
Valocity values
On the horizon
- Monetary Policy Review and OCR – 9th July 2025
- Release of Consumer Price Index – 21st July 2025
- Release of Unemployment Statistics – 6th August 2025
For further information, or if you would like to understand more about New Zealand housing market insights please contact wayne.shum@valocityglobal.com.